A slowdown in hiring by India's top IT companies has resulted in a sharp increase in the industry's profit per employee in Q3FY23. The top four IT companies earned a net profit of 1.7 lakh per employee during October-December 2022, up 8.6 per cent from Rs 1.57 lakh in Q2FY23 and 16.3 per cent from a record low of Rs 1.47 lakh in Q1FY23. Earnings per employee in the third quarter were, however, still down 0.9 per cent on a year-on-year (YoY) basis.
'There is more expansion in the industry happening in retail lines, so we will continue to focus on those lines.'
Tata Elxsi (TelX) reported a weak Q3FY25, with a sharp deceleration in the transportation vertical. However, recent deals in the Asia-Pacific (APAC), higher mix of original equipment makers (OEMs) and partnership with Qualcomm will improve growth. FY25 is the third successive financial year of revenue growth deceleration and second successive financial year of profit deceleration.
'In staples, we have still managed in rural areas.'
The flow of money into Non-Resident Indians (NRIs) deposits witnessed a substantial increase, touching $2.14 billion in the first quarter of this financial year (Q1FY24), compared with $349 million in the same period in FY23. The outstanding NRI deposits rose by $2.5 billion, standing at $141.28 billion at the end of June 2023, up from $138.77 billion in May 2023, according to Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data. RBI released the updated data in the bulletin after almost three months.
While the current headcount reduction has more to do with slowing demand, the rise of artificial intelligence will impact jobs in the future.
Domestic rating agency Icra on Wednesday said India's real GDP growth for the September quarter is likely to decline to 6.5 per cent due to heavy rains and weaker corporate performance. The agency, however, maintained its FY25 growth estimate at 7 per cent on expectations of a pick up in economic activity in the second half of the fiscal.
Movement in the equity market this week will be guided by a host of macroeconomic data announcements, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors, analysts said. Stocks markets concluded the last week on a subdued note, as investors grappled with global uncertainties.
HDFC Bank Q1FY24 results analysis: Shares of HDFC Bank, the world's seventh largest financial entity, have advanced 2 per cent in two days, as against 1 per cent rise in the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex, after the lender reported its April-June quarter (Q1) results for financial year 2023-24 (FY24) on July 17. The S&P BSE Bankex index, meanwhile, has gained 1.3 per cent. While the near-term stock performance may remain sideways due to merger-related hiccups, analysts remain bullish on the stock's long-term prospects.
'Food inflation is important and if that is controlled, then consumption will go up.'
Telecom operator Bharti Airtel reported more than 2.5 times jump in its consolidated profit to Rs 4,160 crore in the April-June quarter of 2024-25 compared to the year-ago period driven by an improvement in average revenue per user and an exceptional gain of Rs 735 crore. The company had posted a profit of Rs 1,612.5 crore in the same period a year ago. The consolidated revenue from operations of Bharti Airtel increased by 2.8 per cent to Rs 38,506.4 crore during the reported quarter from Rs 37,440 crore in the June quarter of the last year.
JP Morgan has reiterated its negative stance on Indian information technology (IT) services and downgraded the sector to underweight (neutral earlier post Q4-FY23 numbers), as it believes the overall demand environment for the sector still remains weak. The research firm expects most companies in the sector to disappoint while announcing their first quarter numbers for the current fiscal (Q1-FY24). Among stocks, it has placed Infosys, TCS, MphasiS in its 'negative catalyst watch'.
The NBFCs, which filed for ECB in January with the Reserve of India (RBI), include REC (over $500 million), Tata Motors Finance ($200 million), L&T Finance Holdings ($125 million), and Shriram Finance ($750 million), according to the RBI data. A senior executive with State Bank of India (SBI) said overseas borrowing by Indian companies, including highly rated NBFCs, was likely to grow because hedging costs were low and there was a softening bias in global interest rates.
The country's GDP is likely to grow at 1.3 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2020-21 and may see a contraction of around 7.3 per cent for the full financial year, according to an SBI research report 'Ecowrap'. The e-National Statistical Office (NSO) will release the GDP estimates for the March 2021 quarter and provisional annual estimates for the year 2020-21 on May 31. "Based on our 'nowcasting model', the forecasted GDP growth for Q4 would be around 1.3 per cent (with downward bias) as against NSO (National Statistical Office) projection of a negative (-)1 per cent," the research report said.
The BSE Mid-Cap index was currently up 0.83%. The BSE Small-Cap index was currently up 0.8%.
Passenger vehicle wholesales crossed the 10-lakh mark for the first time ever in the June quarter riding on the back of robust demand for utility vehicles, industry body SIAM said on Friday. Total dispatches of passenger vehicles in the first quarter stood at 10,26,006 units, up 3 per cent as compared with 996,565 units in April-June FY24. Utility vehicle sales rose 18 per cent to 645,794 units in the first quarter as against 547,194 units in the year-ago period.
The Indian economy will grow at around 6.5 per cent in the current fiscal, notwithstanding high crude oil prices and increased uncertainty due climate changes, NITI Aayog member Arvind Virmani said on Thursday. Virmani also asserted that the gross household savings ratio in India has consistently gone up. In an interview with PTI, he said: "My growth projection (of India's GDP growth) is 6.5 per cent plus minus 0.5 per cent... because my experience is that the fluctuations in global GDP more or less has balanced out for us, assuming normal changes."
The Reserve Bank on Friday raised the inflation projection for current fiscal year to 4.8 per cent from 4.5 per cent with Governor Shaktikanta Das saying lingering food price pressures are likely to keep headline inflation elevated in the December quarter. Consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation increased sharply in September and October 2024 led by an unanticipated increase in food prices.
The real estate sector might have been caught off guard by the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic, but large listed developers like Godrej Properties and Prestige Estates Projects soldier on undeterred. They aim to have sales bookings of Rs 10,000 crore in the next few years.
Given gains in equity prices, it is not surprising that the earnings of asset management companies (AMCs) are growing quicker. The earnings momentum looks set to continue. Good fund performances have thus led to AMC earnings upgrades although valuations are high. Recent market performance and net flow trends have led to earnings upgrades by between 3-8 per cent for FY25-27.
The S&P BSE Sensex shed 119 points to close at 27,977 and the Nifty50 dropped 45 points to finish at 8,591.
The hospitality industry has seen plenty of interest since the catastrophic impact of the pandemic, which led to losses in FY21. The hotel industry market cap has more than tripled since 2019 on the combination of a strong earnings rebound and positive surprises, as well as three recent listings. The industry has good tailwinds. The anticipation is, demand for rooms will outrun supply for a few years despite capacity expansions.
Industrial base metals major Hindalco delivered a strong consolidated performance during the January-March quarter (Q4) of FY24. Consolidated revenue was reported at Rs 56,000 crore, up 6 per cent quarter-on-quarter or Q-o-Q (flat year-on-year or Y-o-Y), with better realisation and higher India volumes.
A strong performance in the July-September quarter of 2023-24 (Q2FY24), an upward revision in the margin guidance and sustained momentum in US sales has helped the stock of pharmaceutical major Cipla gain about 2 per cent over the last two trading sessions. The brokerages have upgraded the earnings estimates for this financial year (FY24) by 6-9 per cent to factor in the improved margin guidance and sales in the US market. Led by the US market, which rose by 31 per cent, the company posted a 16 per cent growth in revenues.
The stock of consumer goods major Emami has corrected nearly 3.5 per cent since its 52-week high of Rs 546.25. On August 29, the stock closed at Rs 521.90 on the BSE. After underperforming the Nifty FMCG index for a long time, the stock is now doing a catch up and surged over 13 per cent in the past one month.
'The overall market cycle is very positive.'
Citing a weak manufacturing sector coupled with the steep margin compression, SBI Research has pencilled in the country's GDP growth for the second quarter at 5.8 per cent, down 30 basis points from average estimates. The government will release the official numbers on November 30. In a report on Monday, SBI Research headed by Soumya Kanti Ghosh said corporate results, operating profit of companies, excluding banking and financial sector, degrew by 14 per cent in Q2FY23 as against 35 per cent growth in Q2FY22, though the top line continued to grow at a healthier pace.
After a massive selloff in the shares of food delivery giants Zomato and Swiggy, analysts believe the time may be right for investors to start adding these stocks to their portfolio carts. Their optimism, they say, stems from the sharp correction in stock prices and valuations, which seem to have "over-baked" concerns about the two companies.
Strong performance by its US subsidiary Novelis and better returns in the copper business helped Hindalco Industries post consolidated revenue growth of 2 per cent quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q) to Rs 54,100 crore in the July-September quarter of 2023-23 (Q2FY24). Novelis' Flat Rolled Products (FRP) volumes grew 6 per cent Q-o-Q to 933,000 tonnes (down 5.2 per cent Y-o-Y) on better North American and European volumes. The consolidated earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) declined 2 per cent Q-o-Q to Rs 5,610 crore despite lower input costs in India and better Novelis performance.
The key risks against a fast recovery would include long delays in business travel resumption, delays in commissioning, etc.
On the exports front, Bajaj is under pressure in Bangladesh and Africa. On the domestic front, it could ride improvement in rural demand and new launches but it also has to cope with competitive intensity and a high base. The management projects 7-8 per cent volume growth in domestic 2W in financial year 2025 (FY25) with moderation in H2FY25 due to a high base Y-o-Y.
Improvements in industrial activity and services sector mainly seems to have boosted GDP growth.
After underperforming its peers in the consumer space in 2022-23, and experiencing a mixed bag in the 2023-24 (FY24) April-June quarter (first quarter, or Q1), brokerages are positive about the medium-term outlook for liquor stocks. Higher raw material costs, concerns regarding increased duties, regulatory changes, and competitive pressures weighed on performance returns in the past quarters. Analysts believe that the sector could experience a reversal of fortunes due to better demand and margin improvements.
Not surprisingly, equity investors are bidding-up stock prices across sectors and the broader market is now more valuable than pre-Covid levels.
The stock of the country's largest passenger vehicle maker, Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL) was down 1.06 per cent in trade on margin pressures in Q1FY24, mixed market share outlook, and earnings impact due to the buyout of Suzuki Motor Gujarat. While MSIL has decided to terminate the contract manufacturing agreement and acquire Suzuki Motor Gujarat, the quantum of payment and mode (cash/equity swap) has not been decided. If the cash option is opted for, there would be a 3.5-4 per cent hit to MSIL's FY25 earnings per share as the deal is expected to be completed by the end of the current financial year.
ICICI Bank was the top loser along with index heavyweights RIL, ITC and HDFC.
Container Corporation of India (Concor) has been the worst performer among major logistics & port stocks registering returns of about 4 per cent over the past three months as compared to 10-12 per cent for peers Gateway Distriparks and Adani Ports and SEZ. Uncertain outlook on the export-import (EXIM) trade front, market share loss, lack of progress on divestment, and weak June quarter results weighed on the stock. Volume and margin movement will be key triggers for the stock going ahead. As was the case in the previous quarter, margin performance was muted even in the June quarter. Operating profit in the quarter was down 17 per cent at Rs 391 crore missing estimates by over 15 per cent. Operating profit margins at 20.4 per cent, too, were down sharply by 350 basis points over the year-ago quarter.
'If weak indicators persist, there is a risk that India could slip into a prolonged slowdown similar to the one experienced between 2014 and 2019,' warns Debashis Basu.
Weighed down by the oil-to-chemicals (O2C) business, Reliance Industries (RIL) results for the April-June quarter (Q1) of 2024-25 (FY25) missed Street estimates. A 14 per cent fall in the O2C segment's operating profit compared to the year-ago quarter and a 22 per cent sequential decline pulled down the consolidated performance. The O2C segment accounts for a third of the overall operating profit and about 60 per cent of the attributable consolidated profit.
In the October-December quarter (Q3) of FY24, Hindalco reported flat consolidated revenue year-on-year (Y-o-Y) at Rs 52,800 crore. Copper revenue rose due to higher shipments and better Average Selling Price (ASP). Revenue from the aluminium vertical and Novelis declined 3 per cent and 6 per cent Y-o-Y, respectively.
